Industry Headlines:



WHEAT: General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday despite stronger world prices and relatively strong weekly export sales. World markets rallied in the face [...]


Soybean futures continued to roll over on a continuation of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. On top of the dwindling good news, there was some bearish news coming from South America,In yesterday’s report we wrote: “It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen. China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.


We kickoff the day with Housing Starts & Permits at 7:30 A.M., Fed Harker Speech at 8:00 A.M., Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., Michigan 5-Year [...]



Quiet overnight session, punctuated by a familiar block trade, leads to a muted day session. Futures moved steadily lower throughout the morning before closing near mid-range.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Grinding data this week has cocoa futures testing highs from 2018. The March contract reached 2729 on Thursday. Asian demand increased and provided market support – leading to more speculative buying.


Soybean futures continued to roll over on a continuation of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. On top of the dwindling good news, there was some bearish news coming from South America,



In yesterday’s report we wrote: “It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen. China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion.


INTRODUCTION Funds flows are frequently analyzed by investors to gauge the demand for investment strategies, but it represents a challenging exercise. Key issues are data availability as few market participants disclose their holdings as well as reporting frequency as limited data is published in real-time. The resulting headlines in media, therefore, are often confusing, although [...] - was originally published at . Please read the Alpha Architect at your convenience.


We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., Business Inventories, Fed Bowman Speech and NAHB [...]



Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 0’6 higher at 158’22, 10 Yr. Notes 0’2 higher at 129’13.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’01.5 at 119’00.5. This put [...]


Oil prices are trying to overcome major historic product build based on optimism that the U.S.-China Trade Phase One deal will be another key turning [...]


DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 15 Source: CME Group Contract Quantity Next Trade Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date [...]





Crypto markets are lower this morning as the sector sees a pullback from its aggressive run-up earlier in the week. Spot volumes, while still above the 30-day average, are only about a third of what they were Tuesday and Wednesday.


Oil prices are trying to overcome major historic product build based on optimism that the U.S.-China Trade Phase One deal will be another key turning point in the U.S. energy export revolution.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


In yesterday’s report we wrote: “It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen.



COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading and in cautious trading before details of the trade agreement with China were [...]


MBA Mortgage Applications came in at 30.2% with the previous 13.5% and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate came in at 3.87% versus the previous 3.91%, New [...]





China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support.



The oil market is trying to find support along with the lower Bollinger bands and is not getting help from supply data from the American [...]




China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.


Each afternoon Ira Epstein gets you up to speed on what happened inthe metals futures markets. He focuses on relevant economic and geopolitical topics that affect the precious metals and base metal markets.


There was only a muted price response to the crude oil stocks draw and prices traded in a relatively narrow range for the day.


February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.


The oil market is trying to find support along with the lower Bollinger bands and is not getting help from supply data from the American Petroleum Institute(API).


Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Big overnight trade in the EDU0. Best guess is that it’s a cover of some sort, as there hasn’t been a lot of 82 put buying recently, and certainly not much call selling! Open interest will give us a better idea tomorrow,


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Some of the more aggressive moves saw DASH up in the range of 100% over 24-hours, Zcash (ZEC) +70%, ETH Classic (ETC) +50% and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) +40%. Bitcoin SV (BSV) was far and away the best performer (+200% at its highs).



MAR CORN The USDA surprised traders on Friday at 11am with a bearish report – higher across the board – yield, production & carry-out! But [...]


Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support. Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.


The American Finance Association Annual Meetingshave now come and gone (here is information on the broader conference). The conference was in sunny San Diego this year and I'm told it did not disappoint!I wasn't able to attend this year, but this is the feedback we've received. This 3-day conference collects the brightest minds in [...] - was originally published at . Please read the Alpha Architect at your convenience.



DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 14 Source: CME Group Contract Quantity Next Trade Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date [...]



We started off the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M. which came out at 102.7 versus the forecast of 104 and previous [...]




February live cattle rallied to round out Friday’s trade on weather concern and hopes that cash would surge after the close. Both of those premium builders came up short which helped erase those gains in yesterday’s session.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Oil prices are declaring, "no risk to supply" after President Trump's actions against Iran caused them to stand down in their quest to attack oil supplies. Already we see risk premium fall and tanker rates start to drop.


Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).


Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Each afternoon Ira Epstein gets you up to speed on what happened inthe metals futures markets. He focuses on relevant economic and geopolitical topics that affect the precious metals and base metal markets.


Global Trade Tariff News confirmed that a “Phase One” deal will be signed January 15th in the US. In short, the deal agreed for the US to halve 15% duties on $120 billion of imports while still maintaining a 25% levy on $250 billion of Chinese goods. Trump also… - The post appeared first on managedfuturesinvesting


Foundations of ESG Investing: How ESG Affects Equity Valuation, Risk, and Performance Guido Giese, Linda-Eling Lee, Dimitris Melas, Zoltán Nagy, and Laura NishikawaJournal of Portfolio ManagementA version of this paper can be foundhereWant to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category What are the research questions? We have [...] - was originally published at . Please read the Alpha Architect at your convenience.


DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13 Source: CME Group Contract Quantity Next Trade Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date [...]


We consider grains to be one of the most exciting markets for this year, an increase in the U.S. grain export will support prices, but only if the U.S. dollar stabilizes or declines. Corn and Wheat seem to be at a discount from their previous years' price average; a definitive US-China trade deal could impact grains to have sharp moves in the year. We also anticipate an inflow of institutional money into grains that will move futures prices of different expiration. This is an optimal environment for our trading program.


Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support. Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China. U.S benchmarks are set to open lower due to mounting uncertainties in the Middle East. Price action digested the killing of Iranian General Soleimani Friday and quickly recovered from session lows despite Iran’s promise to retaliate.


We kickoff the day with Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M., 3 @ 6 –Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. And U.S-China Trade Talks as [...]


Crude oil prices are preparing for a backlash in the aftermath of the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia’s Energy [...]



Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Each afternoon Ira Epstein gets you up to speed on what happened inthe metals futures markets. He focuses on relevant economic and geopolitical topics that affect the precious metals and base metal markets.


Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.


Still, oil seems to be holding keysupport. U.S.-China trade progress, as well as ongoing OPEC plus cuts, should keep oil in an upward trend.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.




Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Each afternoon Ira Epstein gets you up to speed on what happened inthe metals futures markets. He focuses on relevant economic and geopolitical topics that affect the precious metals and base metal markets.



DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 10 Source: CME Group Contract Quantity Next Trade Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date [...]


We kickoff this Full Moon Friday with Unemployment and Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.m., Wholesale Trade at 9:00 A.M., Crop Productions Supply/Demand, Grain Stocks, WASDE [...]


The crude oil market is still working off risk premium as it appears that President Trump’s strong, decisive action against Iran and Iran’s face-saving response [...]





Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support. Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China. U.S benchmarks are set to open lower due to mounting uncertainties in the Middle East. Price action digested the killing of Iranian General Soleimani Friday and quickly recovered from session lows despite Iran’s promise to retaliate.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets.



The managed futures subset of the hedge fund industry in 2019 enjoyed their best year since 2014, with gains of +6.24 percent, according to the Societe Generale CTA Index. Following positive gains in ...


The crude oil market is still working off risk premium as it appears that President Trump's strong, decisive action against Iran and Iran's face-saving response is working and making the world is a safer place.


The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets.



What’s Up TheAg trader indexbeat out the other indexes last month at 1.12%as trade tensions with China eased potentially providing some clarity on demand going into 2020. TheOption Strategy indexlead the list for 2019 at 8.05%as traders did not have many significant short term moves that provide the biggest challenges to their strategies. Meanwhile, the IASGTrend FollowingandSystematic Traderindices posted their highest annual returns since 2014. CTA Spotlight Adalpha Asset Managementcontinued their solid performance for the year in December with a 0.68% return to finish the year up over 12%. Investors are finally taking notice of the 16 years of steady


One of our most popular blog posts: a list of the top FCMs (based on customer funds held in segregation) has been updated with 2019 numbers. When doing research in selecting a futures commission merchant, or FCM, (i.e. custodian) to house your managed futures portfolio, it can be difficult to… - The post appeared first on managedfuturesinvesting


One of the interesting puzzles in finance is that stocks with greater idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) have produced lower returns (see an earlier post here). This is an anomaly because idiosyncratic volatility is viewed as a risk factor—greater volatility should be rewarded with higher, not lower, returns. Studies such as “Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility [...] - was originally published at . Please read the Alpha Architect at your convenience.


Comment on the Deaths of General Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force who was in charge of external operations (essentially supporting Shi’a terror and paramilitary groups outside Iran) and his number two militia commander in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (who directed terror and combat operations against US forces… - The post appeared first on managedfuturesinvesting


U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support. Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China. U.S benchmarks are set to open lower due to mounting uncertainties in the Middle East. Price action digested the killing of Iranian General Soleimani Friday and quickly recovered from session lows despite Iran’s promise to retaliate.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. Live cattle futures were mixed with the February contract trading near unchanged, by the close. Volume has slowed down considerably with the holiday just around the corner, but that could change with some fundamental headlines coming down the pipeline.January soybean futures continued to climb higher yesterday; we are attributing that to continued short covering. The positive headlines are starting to fizzle out, this could lead to a bit of a pullback into next week’s option expiration.


Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 0”9 higher at 156’22, 10 Yr. Notes 0’03.5 higher at 128’28.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’01.5 higher at 118’23.75. The [...]


Oil and products had the risk premium sucked out after President Trump suggested that Iran will “stand down” after Iranian ballistic missiles struck Iraqi military [...]





We've Been Hearing A Lot About BTC Technicals In The Most Recent Rally - We Wanted To Share Some Broad Thoughts About How, In Our Opinion, These Indicators Differ In Crypto Versus Traditional Public Markets


The crude oil stocks build reported by the EIA was mildly bearish to price. But it was the news of the Iranian missile attack that really impacted prices.


Oil and products had the risk premium sucked out after President Trump suggested that Iran will “stand down” after Iranian ballistic missiles struck Iraqi military bases that house U.S. military personnel.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.


Futures traded in a tight range, 4-5 ticks for most contracts. With no real economic news and geopolitical noise on hold, the day session was mostly quiet as traders look ahead to tomorrow’s NFP release.




Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion. Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support. Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China. U.S benchmarks are set to open lower due to mounting uncertainties in the Middle East. Price action digested the killing of Iranian General Soleimani Friday and quickly recovered from session lows despite Iran’s promise to retaliate.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. Live cattle futures were mixed with the February contract trading near unchanged, by the close. Volume has slowed down considerably with the holiday just around the corner, but that could change with some fundamental headlines coming down the pipeline.January soybean futures continued to climb higher yesterday; we are attributing that to continued short covering. The positive headlines are starting to fizzle out, this could lead to a bit of a pullback into next week’s option expiration.U.S benchmarks are holding steady at record levels after avoiding the feared December 15th tariffs. Although details of the “Phase One” deal remain few and far, we discussed yesterday how an actual deal took a back seat to the potential of new tariffs.


DJ U.S. January Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, [...]


We kickoff the day with MBA Mortgage Applications and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., Fed Brainard Speech [...]



Oil and gold went on a risk on/risk off the ride after Iran struck back at U.S. military bases. The initial reaction to the event, [...]



Edited financial advice at Investopedia.com for the last three years Editor/copyeditor/proofreader for a law firm (Lewis and Tonachel, now defunct) and a privately managed futures fund (also now ...







Each afternoon Ira Epstein gets you up to speed on what happened inthe metals futures markets. He focuses on relevant economic and geopolitical topics that affect the precious metals and base metal markets.


Futures experienced big ranges as the situation in the Middle East escalated overnight. Huge ranges, especially in Reds & Greens with many contracts experiencing 18 tick swings.


Each day on the European market opening Anthony Cheung, Sam North, and Amplify Trading gets you prepared for the trading day. They focus on relevant macroeconomic insights and trade idea generation for the global macro futures markets.


Every minute of every trading day, trading signals are assessed on a portfolio of30 futures marketsand tracked in a veryhigh level of transparency and accountability.


Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support.


Oil and gold went on a risk on/risk off the ride after Iran struck back at U.S. military bases. The initial reaction to the event, or as Iran called it “Operation Martyr General Soleimani”, was a fear-driven rally in gold and petroleum and a sharp down move in stocks. Fears that this attack could lead to the all-out war between Iran and the U.S. caused many to run for cover.


Thankfully for the cattle market, it doesn’t trade overnight, and participants have the ability to digest information like this as opposed to reacting on emotion.



MAR BEANS The mkt rallied steadily all week – on the back – of positive trade rhetoric but it took just one geo-political incident to [...]




Shiller's CAPE ratio is a popular and useful metric for measuring whether stock prices are overvalued or undervalued relative to earnings. Recently, Vanguard analysts Haifeng Wang, Harshdeep Singh Ahluwalia, Roger A. Aliaga-Díaz, and Joseph H. Davis have written a very interesting paper on forecasting equity returns using Shiller's CAPE and machine learning: "The Best of [...] - was originally published at . Please read the Alpha Architect at your convenience.


Livestock markets retreated on Friday as a risk-off atmosphere evolved, following an increase in tensions between the US and Iran. Market participants had the weekend to digest the information and the market recovered those losses today, taking us right back to the December 27th highsU.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China. U.S benchmarks are set to open lower due to mounting uncertainties in the Middle East. Price action digested the killing of Iranian General Soleimani Friday and quickly recovered from session lows despite Iran’s promise to retaliate.Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets. Live cattle futures were mixed with the February contract trading near unchanged, by the close. Volume has slowed down considerably with the holiday just around the corner, but that could change with some fundamental headlines coming down the pipeline.January soybean futures continued to climb higher yesterday; we are attributing that to continued short covering. The positive headlines are starting to fizzle out, this could lead to a bit of a pullback into next week’s option expiration.U.S benchmarks are holding steady at record levels after avoiding the feared December 15th tariffs. Although details of the “Phase One” deal remain few and far, we discussed yesterday how an actual deal took a back seat to the potential of new tariffs.A wave of positive trade headlines led to broad-based buying in the agricultural markets. Traders are looking for follow-through in the next few days.Soybeans skyrocketed higher on Friday but closed well off of the highs as details around the Phase 1 trade deal led to confusion. The market is trading against those highs in the early morning trade as some of the details have been ironed out over the weekend.











Rates markets shrugged off a better than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing number as the focus remains on geopolitical issues and the upcoming NFP number on Friday.


Oil prices are pulling back as they await what Iran says will be a swift response to the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cried at the funeral of slain Gen. Qassem Soleimani.


U.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close.


Hedge Fund Industry
Business Intelligence

Exclusively For:

Qualified Investors & Knowledgeable Industry Participants